Australia vs Paraguay — World Cup 2026 Group D — Matchday 3: Odds & Prediction

Parallel kickoff at Levi's Stadium — both sides realistically need a result to reach third-place tiebreaker calculation

Kickoff: 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET (17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun))

Venue: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California (cap. 68,500)

Stage: Group D — Matchday 3

Odds: Australia 2.45 · Draw 3.16 · Paraguay 3.26

25 Jun 20:00 ET

LEVI'S STADIUM · SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA · 68,500

Australia

FIFA #26

Paraguay

FIFA #48

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Editor's prediction for Australia vs Paraguay

Leo Weber

Football desk editor · 22 May 2026 · 6 min read

The two outsider sides of Group D meet at Levi's Stadium with both sides knowing that a win plus a USA-Türkiye result going their way is the only path to the Round of 32 (32 teams advance from 12 groups via second place + best third-place finishers). Popovic and Alfaro both go all-in.

Read full prediction · +150 words

Why Australia are the favourites

Australia's AFC qualifying defensive record (4 goals conceded across 10 matches) is the structural feature. Souttar at centre-back provides aerial dominance against Paraguay's set-piece routines, and Mat Ryan's 90+ caps experience anchors the goalkeeper position.

Mitchell Duke (Machida Zelvia) is the squad's leading qualifying scorer with 5 goals. Goodwin and Boyle provide wide attacking depth that Paraguay's narrow 4-4-2 will be exposed against — particularly Mojica at left-back.

Where Australia can get hurt

Julio Enciso of Brighton has the tournament-pressure technical quality. His injury history limits expectations but his ceiling against Australia's centre-back rotation between Souttar and Rowles is the structural threat.

Miguel Almirón delivers from the right wing what Brighton's Enciso delivers from the central position. The Alfaro 4-4-2 produces a different territorial pattern than Türkiye's; Australia's wide defending may not cope.

The pick

Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is the right entry. Both sides have structural defensive setups; neither has a top-15-FIFA-ranked elite attacking forward. Modal scoreline 1-0 or 1-1. Stake 1%.

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Where to bet on Australia vs Paraguay

Tap any price to bet at that bookmaker. Lime cells show the best price across our partner books. Odds updated Last updated 1 June 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Market

Mostbet

Fonbet

1xBet

Australia to win

Draw

Paraguay to win

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score

Australia -0.5 (Asian handicap — equivalent to Australia outright win)

2.15 2.19 →2.11

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Head-to-head

No previous meetings.

Australia and Paraguay have not met in senior international football. The fixture is historically unique.

Predicted lineups

Australia XI (4-2-3-1) · Tony Popovic

Ryan · Atkinson, Souttar, Rowles, Behich · O'Neill, Irvine · Goodwin, Boyle, Velupillay · Duke

Out: —

Paraguay XI (4-4-2) · Gustavo Alfaro

Silva · Espínola, Alonso, Alderete, Caballero · Almirón, Ríos, Bobadilla, Sanabria · Sosa, Enciso

Out: —

Frequently asked questions

What time does Australia vs Paraguay kick off?⌄

Australia vs Paraguay kicks off on 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET. That is 17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun). The venue is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, capacity 68,500.

Who is the favourite to win?⌄

Australia are the favourite at consensus odds around 2.4. The draw is priced around 3.1.

What is the group situation heading into the match?⌄

This is Matchday 3, the final group-stage round. Both teams in Group D arrive with their qualification position partially or fully decided, but the group winner and runner-up determination plus third-place tiebreaker mathematics may still be in play.

Will Mat Ryan (c) play?⌄

Mat Ryan (c) is in the squad and is expected to start. He plays his club football at Lens.

How can I watch Australia vs Paraguay?⌄

Broadcast rights for the World Cup 2026 vary by region. In the UK, BBC and ITV split the package; in Germany ARD and ZDF; in the US FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish). Streaming is available via the respective broadcasters' platforms.