Türkiye vs USA — World Cup 2026 Group D — Matchday 3: Odds & Prediction

Group D decider — USA defend top spot under Pochettino, Türkiye's young attacking duo of Güler and Yıldız look to upset the host nation

Kickoff: 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET (17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun))

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (cap. 94,000)

Stage: Group D — Matchday 3

Odds: Türkiye 3.06 · Draw 3.47 · USA 2.45

25 Jun 20:00 ET

AT&T STADIUM · ARLINGTON, TEXAS · 94,000

Türkiye

FIFA #28

USA

FIFA #16

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Editor's prediction for Türkiye vs USA

Mike Betoray

Lead odds analyst · 22 May 2026 · 6 min read

AT&T Stadium Arlington — the tournament's largest venue, 94,000 capacity — hosts the Group D decider. Both sides realistically need a positive result. Pochettino plays his strongest XI; Montella has been explicit that Güler-Yıldız chemistry is the squad's competitive advantage.

Read full prediction · +150 words

Why the USA are the favourites

Home-tournament psychology factor. The USA play in a stadium that will be 75-80% American fans. Pochettino has been explicit about converting the home advantage into a quarter-final ceiling, and the path through Group D winner aligns with that objective.

The Tyler Adams + Weston McKennie + Yunus Musah midfield three has the structural quality to neutralise the Çalhanoğlu deep-six role that Türkiye depends on. Pulisic delivers the final-third quality from inside-left.

Where the USA can get hurt

Arda Güler is the best individual playmaker in this match. Real Madrid's 21-year-old has 14 assists in La Liga and Champions League 2025-26 — the most-creative single player at the tournament outside the favourites' squads. His chemistry with Kenan Yıldız (Juventus, 11 goals + 10 assists in Serie A) is the defining tactical feature.

Pulisic's 19-game club-and-country goalless streak entering the tournament. If he doesn't break the duck, the USA attacking ceiling drops materially — Pepi from PSV and Balogun from Monaco have ceilings, but Pulisic is the chance-creating force.

The pick

Türkiye Draw No Bet at 2.20 is the value entry. The home-tournament + draw scenario is plausible (35% probability); Türkiye outright win (28%) plus refund on draw makes this +EV against the line. Stake 1.5%.

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Where to bet on Türkiye vs USA

Tap any price to bet at that bookmaker. Lime cells show the best price across our partner books. Odds updated Last updated 1 June 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Market

Mostbet

Fonbet

1xBet

Türkiye to win

Draw

USA to win

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score

USA -0.5 (Asian handicap — equivalent to USA outright win)

2.10 2.14 →2.06

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Head-to-head

Jun 2014 · FriendlyUSA 2-1 Türkiye

Single friendly from 2014 — entirely different generation.

Predicted lineups

Türkiye XI (4-2-3-1) · Vincenzo Montella

Bayindir · Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu · Çalhanoğlu (c), Yüksek · Akgün, Güler, Yıldız · Aktürkoğlu

Out: —

USA XI (4-3-3) · Mauricio Pochettino

Freese · Dest, Richards, Ream, Robinson · Adams, McKennie, Musah · Pulisic, Pepi, Balogun

Out: —

Frequently asked questions

What time does Türkiye vs USA kick off?⌄

Türkiye vs USA kicks off on 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET. That is 17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun). The venue is AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, capacity 94,000.

Who is the favourite to win?⌄

USA are the favourite at consensus odds around 2.4. The draw is priced around 3.4.

What is the group situation heading into the match?⌄

This is Matchday 3, the final group-stage round. Both teams in Group D arrive with their qualification position partially or fully decided, but the group winner and runner-up determination plus third-place tiebreaker mathematics may still be in play.

Will Altay Bayındır play?⌄

Altay Bayındır is in the squad and is expected to start. He plays his club football at Manchester United.

How can I watch Türkiye vs USA?⌄

Broadcast rights for the World Cup 2026 vary by region. In the UK, BBC and ITV split the package; in Germany ARD and ZDF; in the US FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish). Streaming is available via the respective broadcasters' platforms.