Netherlands vs Tunisia — World Cup 2026 Group F — Matchday 3: Odds & Prediction

Netherlands confirm first place at AT&T Stadium — Tunisia look for first-ever World Cup knockout-stage progression

Kickoff: 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET (17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun))

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (cap. 94,000)

Stage: Group F — Matchday 3

Odds: Netherlands 1.43 · Draw 4.59 · Tunisia 7.65

25 Jun 20:00 ET

AT&T STADIUM · ARLINGTON, TEXAS · 94,000

Netherlands

FIFA #7

Tunisia

FIFA #41

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Editor's prediction for Netherlands vs Tunisia

Leo Weber

Football desk editor · 22 May 2026 · 6 min read

Netherlands arrive at MD3 likely already first in Group F. Memphis Depay leads the attack; Koeman rotates intelligently. Tunisia must win and probably need either Japan or Sweden to lose for third-place tiebreaker mathematics to favour them.

Read full prediction · +150 words

Why the Netherlands are the favourites

Netherlands have the most-balanced attacking unit at the tournament outside the elite favourites. Depay, Xavi Simons (PSV), Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) and the rotation depth on the right (Bergwijn) provide multiple threat vectors.

Tunisia's 4-1-4-1 setup under Trabelsi is defensive by design — exactly the structure Netherlands' Frenkie de Jong + Schouten central midfield most-easily progresses past. Possession of 65-70% is the expected baseline.

Where the Netherlands can get hurt

Hannibal Mejbri of Burnley is the squad's individual talent. The Manchester United youth product has the tournament-pressure quality that has caught more-favoured sides before. His central midfield work + Skhiri's pressing combination creates the one credible Tunisia threat.

Koeman's rotation policy is the structural variable. If he rotates Van Dijk + Simons + Depay simultaneously (as he has done in some pre-tournament friendlies), Tunisia's defensive structure can hold the line for 90 minutes.

The pick

Netherlands to win and Over 2.5 goals at 2.30 is the right combined entry. Netherlands at 1.40 outright is too short; the combination odds (combined market) is the better risk-adjusted bet. Stake 1%.

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Where to bet on Netherlands vs Tunisia

Tap any price to bet at that bookmaker. Lime cells show the best price across our partner books. Odds updated Last updated 1 June 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Market

Mostbet

Fonbet

1xBet

Netherlands to win

Draw

Tunisia to win

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score

Netherlands -1.5 (Asian handicap — win on Netherlands 2+ goal margin)

1.90 1.94 →1.86

Our partner bookmakers

Head-to-head

Mar 2022 · FriendlyNetherlands 2-1 Tunisia

Single recent friendly — useful directional only.

Predicted lineups

Netherlands XI (4-3-3) · Ronald Koeman

Verbruggen · Geertruida, Van Dijk (c), De Ligt, Hato · Schouten, Reijnders, Frenkie de Jong · Gakpo, Depay, Xavi Simons

Out: —

Tunisia XI (4-1-4-1) · Sami Trabelsi

Dahmen · Talbi, Bronn, Meriah, Abdi · Ben Romdhane · Skhiri, Mejbri, Laidouni, Sliti · Khazri (c)

Out: —

Frequently asked questions

What time does Netherlands vs Tunisia kick off?⌄

Netherlands vs Tunisia kicks off on 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET. That is 17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun). The venue is AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, capacity 94,000.

Who is the favourite to win?⌄

Netherlands are the favourite at consensus odds around 1.4. The draw is priced around 4.5.

What is the group situation heading into the match?⌄

This is Matchday 3, the final group-stage round. Both teams in Group F arrive with their qualification position partially or fully decided, but the group winner and runner-up determination plus third-place tiebreaker mathematics may still be in play.

Will Virgil van Dijk play?⌄

Virgil van Dijk is in the squad and is expected to start. He plays his club football at Liverpool.

How can I watch Netherlands vs Tunisia?⌄

Broadcast rights for the World Cup 2026 vary by region. In the UK, BBC and ITV split the package; in Germany ARD and ZDF; in the US FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish). Streaming is available via the respective broadcasters' platforms.