Why Netherlands are favourites
The 1.70 price reflects something more substantial than the cancellation of Mitoma. The Netherlands topped their UEFA qualifying group unbeaten, with Memphis Depay scoring 8 goals across the campaign to become the Oranje's all-time top scorer (surpassing Robin van Persie). Around him, Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) provides Premier League-level cutting movement on the left, Donyell Malen the pace on the right, and Tijjani Reijnders (Manchester City) creates from midfield with the technical control Japan have struggled against historically.
The spine is elite. Bart Verbruggen in goal at 23. Virgil van Dijk anchoring the back at 34, with Tottenham's Micky van de Ven as the long-overdue partner alongside him. Jeremie Frimpong (now at Bayern Munich) provides the most direct full-back at the tournament. And Ronald Koeman — coaching his second tournament with Ruud van Nistelrooy as his assistant — has the institutional knowledge to manage the heat in Arlington (high 30s°C outside, retractable roof, AC controlled). The 4-3-3 Koeman uses puts pressure on Japan's wing-backs from minute one.
Where Japan can punish them — even without Mitoma
Japan are not a Mitoma-only team, however much the absence stings. Eight months ago they beat Brazil 3-2 in Tokyo. Two months ago they beat England 1-0 at Wembley — the first time the Three Lions failed to score since June 2024. They've quietly become one of the most respected sides outside the European top six. Moriyasu's 3-4-3 has a midfield three of Wataru Endo (Liverpool, captain), Ao Tanaka (Leeds) and Daichi Kamada (Crystal Palace) — three Premier League players capable of pressing the Dutch midfield off rhythm.
Takefusa Kubo at Real Sociedad has had his best La Liga season yet, and Ayase Ueda was the 2025-26 Eredivisie top scorer for Feyenoord. Both are familiar with the European game in a way that smaller Asian nations historically haven't been. The defence is genuinely strong: Ko Itakura at Ajax, Hiroki Ito at Bayern Munich, Takehiro Tomiyasu (also Ajax) all play CB at top-five European clubs. Behind them Zion Suzuki, the youngest #1 in the tournament at 23, plays for Parma in Serie A.
What Japan lose without Mitoma is the player who turns one moment into a goal against any defence. What they keep is a structurally elite team. If the Netherlands play 60% rhythm — and they did against Ecuador in their March friendly — Japan have the personnel to draw or steal it.
Final pick and value bets
Netherlands at 1.70 prices the gap about right, but the Mitoma news widened it by maybe a tick. The cleanest value lives in the AH and totals. Netherlands -0.25 AH at 1.68 → is the smarter shape than the straight 1X2 — you get half your stake back on the draw, which is a real possibility given Japan's recent giant-killing form against Brazil and England.
Both teams to score yes at 1.78 → is the second-cleanest line. Japan have scored in every match against a FIFA top-10 nation since October 2024 (Brazil, England, Scotland, Germany of course at Qatar), and Netherlands have failed to keep a clean sheet against a top-20 Asian side in their last six attempts. Ueda and Kubo can find goals together; Memphis, Gakpo and Depay together can find more.
For a longer shot, Cody Gakpo to score at 2.30 → is the most efficient anytime market on the board — he has scored in three of his last four Netherlands starts and Japan's left-side defending without their best winger ahead of them gets stressed.
Final pick: Netherlands -0.25 AH at 1.68 → · longer shot: Netherlands 2-1 at 8.50 →.
