Why Belgium are favourites
Belgium at 1.45 is priced on the depth gap rather than the recent form. Kevin De Bruyne (now at Napoli) remains the most creative midfielder at the tournament when his hamstrings hold up; he scored six goals across UEFA qualifying. Thibaut Courtois — Real Madrid's Champions League-winning goalkeeper — is back from the long ACL recovery that cost him Euro 2024. Around them, Romelu Lukaku has limited minutes at Napoli this season but historically scores at World Cup level (4 goals at Russia 2018), and Jeremy Doku at Manchester City has had the best campaign of his career on the wing.
Rudi Garcia took over from Domenico Tedesco in March 2025 and stabilised what had been a chaotic qualifying campaign. Belgium drew twice with North Macedonia, conceded a 3-0 lead before beating Wales 4-3 in the 88th minute, then squeezed past the same opponent 4-2 away. They top-2'd a manageable group but the volatility is real. Egypt punished exactly that profile of side last November in Kuwait City.
Where Egypt can punish them
Egypt arrive better than their FIFA #29 ranking suggests. Mohamed Salah is finishing his Liverpool career — he announced his departure at the end of the 2025-26 season — and walking into what is almost certainly his final World Cup at 33. He's surrounded by genuine depth: Omar Marmoush at Manchester City has scored 14 Premier League goals this season, and Trezeguet remains a credible Al-Ahly threat. The midfield three (Fathi, Attia, Ashour) is technical and disciplined under Hossam Hassan — himself an Egypt legend who scored 69 international goals and now coaches the man chasing his record.
Defensively, El Shenawy (Al-Ahly) is a top-tier CAF goalkeeper, and Mohamed Abdelmonem at OGC Nice gives them top-flight European centre-back experience. Egypt's friendly results this preparation cycle: 4-0 over Saudi Arabia, 0-0 vs Spain, 1-1 vs Mexico, 5-2 loss vs USA. That's a competitive profile against quality opposition.
Then there's history. Egypt beat Belgium 2-1 the last time these sides met in November 2022, with De Bruyne losing the ball in his own half for the opener. Both Egyptian goals came from Salah's creation. If Belgium concede early, the route back is uncertain — they lacked a Plan B in March friendlies and were dismantled 5-2 by the USA.
Final pick and value bets
Belgium at 1.45 doesn't generate edge. The value lives in totals and handicap markets. Both teams to score yes at 1.85 → is the strongest line on the board: Salah has scored against Belgium before, and the Red Devils have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven of their last ten matches against top-30 FIFA opposition.
If you want to back Belgium with more upside than the 1.45 straight bet, Belgium -1 AH at 2.05 → is more efficient — Belgium need to win by 2+ goals for this to land. They did exactly that in the four wins of their qualifying campaign, but Egypt's defensive structure may keep this closer than that. Use it as a smaller-stake position.
For a longer shot, Mohamed Salah to score at 3.00 → is one of the most underpriced anytime markets at the tournament. Salah scored against Belgium last time, has a personal motivation chasing his manager's national-team record, and his Liverpool form remains elite even at 33.
Final pick: Both teams to score yes at 1.85 → · longer shot: Belgium 2-1 at 9.00 →.
