Why Portugal are favourites
The 1.40 price is built around one of the deepest squads at the tournament. Roberto Martínez has Vitinha (PSG, Champions League winner this season), João Neves (PSG, the 21-year-old running PSG's midfield), Bernardo Silva (Manchester City), Rúben Neves and Bruno Fernandes in midfield — five elite operators across that one position. The defence pairs Rúben Dias (Man City) with Gonçalo Inácio (Sporting) in front of Diogo Costa in goal. The wing-backs are Nuno Mendes (PSG) and João Cancelo. The attack runs through Cristiano Ronaldo as the central reference, with Rafael Leão (AC Milan) cutting in from the left.
Portugal topped UEFA Group F with four wins, one draw, and one loss — a 2-0 defeat in Dublin where Ronaldo received his first-ever international red card. They closed qualifying with a 9-1 dismantling of Armenia, scoring 20 across the campaign. The 4-3-3 Martínez uses presses high and circulates possession through Vitinha and Neves; the structural depth across midfield will overwhelm anything DR Congo can field over 90 minutes.
Where DR Congo can punish them
The Leopards arrive far better resourced than their first-ever return suggests. Captain Chancel Mbemba (107 caps, all-time record) anchors a defence that includes Aaron Wan-Bissaka (West Ham) and Axel Tuanzebe (Burnley) — both English-born players who switched allegiance specifically to play in this tournament. Tuanzebe scored the 100th-minute winner against Jamaica in the intercontinental play-off in Guadalajara that sent them here. Arthur Masuaku at left-back gives them top-flight European experience on the other side.
Up front, Yoane Wissa (Newcastle, joined January 2026) leads the line, with Cédric Bakambu (Real Betis, 21 international goals — one behind all-time record holder Dieumerci Mbokani) as the experienced number 9. Fiston Mayele at Pyramids FC scored prolifically through CAF qualifying. The Leopards finished 2nd in their CAF group behind Senegal — losing 3-2 in Kinshasa after leading 2-0 — and showed they could ride a knife-fight with quality opposition.
Sébastien Desabre's tactical project, built since 2022, plays a low block and counter-attack designed exactly for this kind of opponent. Portugal's biggest weakness is the gap behind their full-backs when Cancelo and Mendes push high — a profile Wissa's pace was made for. If Portugal go up early and relax, DR Congo can compete.
Final pick and value bets
Portugal at 1.40 generates limited edge. The cleanest value is in totals and goalscorer markets. Both teams to score yes at 2.05 → is the strongest line on the board: DR Congo scored in every CAF qualifying match against top-30 opposition, and Portugal failed to keep a clean sheet in two of their last four qualifiers (against Ireland and Hungary). The Wissa-Bakambu-Mayele front line has enough quality to find Diogo Costa once.
If you want to back Portugal with more upside than the 1.40 straight, Portugal -1 AH at 2.00 → is the smarter shape. Portugal need to win by 2+ goals for it to land, which is a fair representation of the expected margin against an organised African side — they did exactly that against Hungary, Slovakia and Armenia in the qualifying cycle.
For a longer shot, Cristiano Ronaldo to score at 1.85 → is one of the most underpriced anytime markets at the tournament. He scored five times in qualifying, has scored in three of his last four World Cup opening matches, and the symbolic importance of his sixth and final World Cup debut is the kind of personal motivation that produces goals.
Final pick: Both teams to score yes at 2.05 → · longer shot: Portugal 3-1 at 9.00 →.
