Japan vs Sweden — World Cup 2026 Group F — Matchday 3: Odds & Prediction

Group F decider at MetLife Stadium — Japan and Sweden compete for second place behind the Netherlands

Kickoff: 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET (17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun))

Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey (cap. 82,500)

Stage: Group F — Matchday 3

Odds: Japan 2.75 · Draw 3.26 · Sweden 2.70

25 Jun 20:00 ET

METLIFE STADIUM · EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY · 82,500

Japan

FIFA #15

Sweden

FIFA #31

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Editor's prediction for Japan vs Sweden

Vasco Oliveira

Head editor · 22 May 2026 · 6 min read

Group F top-2 decider. Both sides have lost to Netherlands and beaten Tunisia (typical Matchday 3 expected scenario). The winner of Japan-Sweden goes to Round of 32 second-place position; the loser depends on third-place tiebreakers. Mitoma-less Japan vs Isak-Gyökeres Sweden.

Read full prediction · +150 words

Why Sweden are the favourites

Alexander Isak (Liverpool) and Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) form the deadliest striking partnership at the tournament outside the elite favourites. Together they scored 13 qualifying goals across the campaign and are tournament-pressure-tested.

Sweden's set-piece quality (Forsberg's delivery from the captain's role) exploits Japan's defensive setup. The Japan back three of Itakura, Tomiyasu and Hiroki Ito has been tournament-grade but is not aerially dominant — Gyökeres's 6'1" header threat is the structural problem.

Where Sweden can get hurt

Japan's 3-4-2-1 high-pressing structure is among the four best at the tournament. Endo, Kamada and Tanaka coordinate to deny Sweden the deep build-up. If the press succeeds, Sweden's transition speed (Anthony Elanga at Newcastle) is reduced.

Mitoma's absence (hamstring injury, ruled out before tournament) was Japan's worst pre-tournament news. Kubo, Doan and Nakamura combine for the wide threat but the unique left-wing dribbling is missing — Sweden's right-back has less defensive workload than against the full-strength squad.

The pick

Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is the value entry. Both sides will attack — neither can afford a 0-0 in MD3. Isak-Gyökeres + Kubo make for a goal-rich match. Modal score 2-1 either way. Stake 1.5%.

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Where to bet on Japan vs Sweden

Tap any price to bet at that bookmaker. Lime cells show the best price across our partner books. Odds updated Last updated 1 June 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Market

Mostbet

Fonbet

1xBet

Japan to win

Draw

Sweden to win

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score

Sweden -0.5 (Asian handicap — equivalent to Sweden outright win)

2.40 2.45 →2.35

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Head-to-head

Jul 1995 · FriendlyJapan 2-0 Sweden

Single 1995 friendly — historically distant.

Predicted lineups

Japan XI (3-4-2-1) · Hajime Moriyasu

Suzuki · Ito, Itakura, Tomiyasu · Tanaka, Endo, Kamada, Nakamura · Doan, Kubo · Ueda

Out: —

Sweden XI (4-3-3) · Jon Dahl Tomasson

Olsen · Lustig, Lindelöf, Hien, Augustinsson · Forsberg (c), Olsson, Bergvall · Gyökeres, Isak, Elanga

Out: —

Frequently asked questions

What time does Japan vs Sweden kick off?⌄

Japan vs Sweden kicks off on 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 ET. That is 17:00 PT · 20:00 ET · 01:00 BST (26 Jun). The venue is MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, capacity 82,500.

Who is the favourite to win?⌄

Sweden are the favourite at consensus odds around 2.65. The draw is priced around 3.2.

What is the group situation heading into the match?⌄

This is Matchday 3, the final group-stage round. Both teams in Group F arrive with their qualification position partially or fully decided, but the group winner and runner-up determination plus third-place tiebreaker mathematics may still be in play.

Will Shion Suzuki play?⌄

Shion Suzuki is in the squad and is expected to start. He plays his club football at Parma.

How can I watch Japan vs Sweden?⌄

Broadcast rights for the World Cup 2026 vary by region. In the UK, BBC and ITV split the package; in Germany ARD and ZDF; in the US FOX (English) and Telemundo (Spanish). Streaming is available via the respective broadcasters' platforms.